Mapping scenarios of differentiated EUrope 2035

Differentiated integration have been part of the European integration project since its early days and differentiation will remain necessity if the EU wants to overcome stalemate and improve the functioning of the European integration process amid persistent fragmentation and divergence. Therefore, the central question is not whether there will be a differentiated Europe, but which form of differentiation will or rather should prevail and in which policy fields. Indeed, looking at future scenarios and trajectories of differentiated integration has been among the main tasks of three Horizon 2020 projects centered on differentiation in Europe: EU Differentiation, Dominance and Democracy (EU3D), Integrating Diversity in the European Union (InDivEU) and EU Integration and Differentiation for Effectiveness and Accountability (EU IDEA). Building upon the scenario exercises developed in the framework of these projects and gathering other relevant strategic foresights publications, this article conducts a mapping and meta-analyses of the scenarios produced therein. It focuses on patterns of integration and differentiation in the EU and in its relations with external partners by the year 2035. In order to do so, in a first phase, it inductively develops a system for categorization based on content of all studies (basic assumptions, trends, variables, etc.). The second phase is deduction and the paper draws epistemological assumptions, theories used, level of analysis, and the types of explanations and statements used in the respective scenarios. Finally, the relevant scenarios are mapped against manifold features and policy fields, including, among others, Economic and Monetary Union, foreign, security and defence policy, and migration. The paper will also explore the potential challenges/opportunities of the various forms of differentiation by analysing how the scenarios might lead to high(er) or low(er) levels of effectiveness and legitimacy/democratic accountability. The paper is part of the Horizon 2020 project: Differentiation: Clustering Excellence (DiCE).