Back to square one? The impact of the war in the Ukraine on narratives about fossil fuels

Did the war in the Ukraine have an impact on narratives about fossil fuels? In light of the overwhelming evidence on the anthropogenic causes of climate change, many countries have committed to reducing their CO2 emissions in the next decades. At the same time, the Russian invasion into the Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on Russia have brought into the spotlight the continuing dependence of Western societies on fossil fuels, especially gas. This article investigates the potential dynamics the war in the Ukraine might have had on the way fossil fuels are discussed in public. The analysis focuses on the crucial case of Germany, which as a producer of coal has set ambitious goals of phasing out this type of fossil fuels but simultaneously has been a big importer of Russian gas in the last years. Thus, conflicts emerging from ambitious climate goals versus strong dependence on fossil fuels are expected to become especially apparent in this country. I analyze the online communication of key actors in the energy policy subsystem, starting one year before and ending one year after the Russian invasion into the Ukraine. Theoretically, I rely on the Narrative Policy Framework (NPF), a recent theory of the policy process. The NPF builds on insights from psychology that highlight the importance of narratives – i.e., stories with clear normative evaluations – for human communication. Assuming a structuralist stance towards narratives, recurring elements of narratives such as heroes, villains, or victims, are identified in policy documents and made amenable to quantitative and qualitative analysis. By analyzing shifts in narratives that might have occurred due to the war in the Ukraine, I aim to produce insights and recommendations for actors that want to advance the phasing out of fossil fuels. For NPF scholars, the analysis will be valuable because it elucidates the role of external shocks on narrative dynamics, a so far under-investigated area of research.