Building a community of support for Ukraine in the Global South: Evaluating the success and failure of the EU’s policy

This paper explores how, on the eve and in the early stage of Russia’s invasion, the EU sought to build a community of support among countries of the Global South for Ukraine and for the EU sanctions against Russia. It evaluates the EU’s policy and analyses reasons of success and failure, giving a central place to the positions of a sample of target countries. The paper starts from the assumption that governments of the Global South have differentiated positions. Applying Carlsnaes’s integrative approach to Foreign Policy Analysis, these national positions are categorised along their structural, intentional and dispositional dimensions. Empirically, the paper draws on the analysis of policy documents, economic data and interviews with diplomats in Brussels. It is argued that the positions of countries from the Global South are more differentiated than often assumed and that diverging factors play into this. Limited support for the EU’s policy is usually due to a mix of national interests (such as economic dependence on Russia for grain or fertilisers), parochial interests (such as Russian support for elite groups or regimes) and attitudes (such as reproaching the West double standards or a different sense of urgency). The analysis seeks to understand the position of countries from the Global South in a more nuanced way and to evaluate the EU’s mixed record in building a community of support.