AI and political risk analysis: a French experiment?

The advances of artificial intelligence and the wider availability of data have enabled Ministries of Foreign Affairs to test new ways of anticipating and of detecting weak signals from an instable geopolitical environment. Drawing from archival data and interviews, this paper will present the case of a use of artificial intelligence to predict the likelihood of political risk materializing at the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This case study is then contrasted with a more traditional view of diplomatic political risk as a craft, drawing from contextual analysis and judgment derived from experience. This paper contributes to the study of the application of artificial intelligence in political risk analysis in Ministries of Foreign Affairs, its potential and limitations.