In the Voting Booth: Comparing LGBTIQ+ Political Choices to the General Population during the federal election in Germany in 2021

Prior research broadly showed that lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) persons in Europe favor left-wing or progressive parties (Turnbull-Dugarte, 2020; Hunklinger, 2021; Wurthmann, 2023; Hunklinger & Kleer, forthcoming). This tendency is connected to widespread general left-wing attitudes among LGBTIQ+ and issues orientations and supply of parties regarding LGB-specific topics. This paper seeks to delve into the voting behavior of the LGBTIQ+ in Germany, particularly in comparison to the general population, within the context of the 2021 federal elections in Germany. To achieve this, we utilize data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES 2023) and the LGBTIQ+ voting study (conducted by de Nève et al. 2021), juxtaposing models between the general population and the LGBTIQ+ sample in Germany. To enhance the rigor of our analyses, we adopt a Bayesian framework, enabling the incorporation of prior distributions from general population models into those specific to the LGBTIQ+ population. Moreover, our study aims to elucidate potential intersectional effects by considering interactions between education, gender, and age. This approach allows for a nuanced exploration of how these intersecting identities may influence the voting behavior of LGBTIQ+ individuals, offering valuable insights into their electoral choices compared to the general population. Through this multifaceted examination, we seek to contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of LGBTIQ+ voting behavior and its distinctiveness in relation to the general population.