From Protest to Parliament: Anti-Sectarian Mobilization and Lebanon’s New Opposition

How do non-violent anti-government protests shape voter behavior in cases where identity is politically salient? Can exposure to protests limit identity-based polarization in these contexts? Our proposed study explores these and related questions in Lebanon, where sustained protests during the "October Revolution" in 2019 resulted in the resignation of the prime minister and the rise of new opposition groups and elites with roots in prior social movements. Our research design pairs a detailed comparison of results from the 2018 and 2022 legislative elections with a survey designed to uncover mechanisms by which exposure to protest limits polarization along identity-based lines and facilitates electoral support for non-identitarian challengers. Our design exploits a unique feature of Lebanon’s electoral system, whereby small numbers of voters are assigned to polling stations on the basis of sect and gender. Our findings build on a rich literature that focuses on the effects of protest on political change. The results of our proposed study will help scholars and practitioners better understand the sources of illiberal regime stability—and the legacies of attempted revolutions—in contexts where identity structures much of social and political life.