The Prosecution of Dutch MP Wilders and Its Effects on Electoral Participation

Democratic systems are frequently threatened from within. Many of these systems are militant democracies, which take measures designed to defend against such threats. A common measure is legally prosecuting political actors who allegedly pose a threat to (the quality of) democracy. In contemporary democracies, such prosecutions are usually based on bans on “hate speech,” as defined in the UN’s 1965 anti-discrimination treaty, ICERD. Following ICERD, many countries worldwide have adopted measures designed to eradicate hate speech. E.g., the main far right leaders in Britain, Germany, France, the Netherlands and Wallonia have all been prosecuted for it. Justified or not, hate speech prosecutions of politicians may prevent citizens from electing whomever they wish, and/or on whatever platform they wish. Politicians may even refrain from discussing certain political ideas –e.g., critiques of multiculturalism– to avoid (further) prosecution. If citizens perceive such prosecutions to restrict their options at the ballot box, they are theoretically expected to be less likely to turn out as a result. The proposed paper aims to assess whether/to what extent such prosecutions decrease voter turnout (and among which segments of the electorate). This question is relevant in light of current public debates of decreasing turnout in established democracies. In addition, this paper’s findings may inform decision-making by authorities who can use such prosecutions to deal with internal threats to the democratic system. The question is to be addressed by analyzing a web-based voter panel survey regarding an unanticipated decision to start a prosecution. A representative sample of the Dutch electorate (N=1,400) was interviewed before and after an Amsterdam Court, contrary to expectations, ordered the prosecution of MP Wilders in 2009. This constitutes a ‘natural experiment’ setting. The study’s research design allows the estimation of effects of prosecution on electoral participation at the individual level, controlling for other relevant factors.