Addressing Security Challenges in the Baltic Region through Multilateral Cooperation

Abstract

The Baltic States joined NATO in 2004 in order to ensure military security. A possibility of conflict and full-scale war did not seem relevant at that period, but Russia’s aggression in Georgia in 2008 and especially in Ukraine in 2014 showed that a conflict with Russia is not as unlikely as it seemed. The Baltic States could be the hotspot of the conflict because of the significant Russian speaking minorities and geopolitical position of Kaliningrad region. NATO faces significant challenges ensuring military security of the Baltic States. At the same time, European security architecture is becoming less defined and new ideas on how to increase military cooperation in the European Union have been raised by France and Germany. The Baltic States’ perceptions of the EU defense cooperation might have an effect on the cooperation with NATO and long-term effect on deterrence and defense capabilities of the region. Finally, since the reestablishment of the independence of the Baltic States in 1990 (Lithuania) and 1991 (Estonia and Latvia), the Baltic States have been under pressure for greater cooperation in defense. It seems natural, however, the three Baltic States are reluctant to cooperate. The panel aims to discuss NATO cooperation for the defense of the Baltic States, the perceptions of the Baltic States in the EU defense cooperation and possibilities for the Baltic States to work together on the sub-regional security. The panel will discuss NATO actions to provide security for the Baltic region responding to the emerging challenges and how successful the Alliance is in doing that. The focus is on the analysis of NATO defense posture of the Baltic States and its comparison to NATO defense strategy for West Germany in 1980s. The positions of the Baltic States towards the Common Security and Defense Policy of the European Union are analyzed indicating how the PESCO and EDF initiatives are perceived and assess how viable they are. Finally, the panel focuses on the viability of the Baltic States cooperation to ensure military security acting as a sub-region with the focus on the alliance building theory at the sub-regional level.