The Dutch Referendum on the EU-Ukraine Treaty: Explaining the Vote

On 6 April 2016, Dutch citizens cast their vote in the second national referendum since the introduction of universal suffrage. Like ten years ago, when the majority of the voters in the Netherlands said "No" to the European Constitution, the subject concerns an EU issue. This time the topic is the Association Agreement between the European Union and Ukraine. Even though the outcome of the referendum is not binding (when turnout is above the 30 percent threshold, the Dutch government and parliament can formally still decide to ratify this treaty), the outcome can have substantial effects for domestic and European politics. This paper focuses on the explanation of citizens' vote choice in this referendum. On the basis of survey data collected among a nation-wide sample of the electorate in several waves, the paper analyses two research questions. The first question is to what extent the vote was driven by cues or symbolic attitudes, such as opinions about European integration, approval of the incumbent government, and attitudes towards Russia. The second question is whether the relative impact of these factors shifted across the campaign period. The paper concludes with a reflection on the implications of the findings for the study of referendum voting as well as for national referendums on European integration.