Winners, Losers, and Government Turnover: The Impact of Election Outcome on Political Efficacy

Multiple studies have probed the relationship between election results and political efficacy. However, the results are not clear-cut; some studies claim that being on the winning side increases political efficacy, while others report there is no effect. Most studies don't consider variables, such as government turnover, even though these change the meaning of the win/loss in the election, leading to differing effects on political efficacy. It is logical to think an election win, leading to government turnover, gives citizens the realization that democratic function increases their political efficacy. For these reasons, this study probes the win/loss effect on political efficacy by focusing on government turnover. The study uses the 2009 Japanese lower house election that brought historic government turnover. Using panel data collected pre and post election, this study reveals: Being on the winning side generally has a positive impact on external efficacy, and it also increases internal efficacy particularly among people who supported the rival party for a long time. In short, being in the political majority increased the level of internal efficacy of citizens who had been in the political minority for a long time.