Understanding the Role of Contextual Factors in the Support for the Populist Radical Right: Examining Causal Mechanisms and Conditional Effects

Populist radical right (PRR) parties have gained support in a wide variety of regional and local areas. However, when trying to explain geographical patterns of support from the PPR, similar outcomes in otherwise different contexts, and different outcomes in otherwise similar contexts can be observed. These ‘paradoxes’ could be taken to suggest that context does not matter. However, in this paper we argue that context does matter, but only if we enhance our understanding in two ways. First, by acknowledging that contextual effects are conditional, given that it has been demonstrated that some citizens are less likely to be affected by local grievances than others. Second, by studying the mechanisms linking contextual factors to political behaviour. We hypothesize that contextual developments, such as rising levels of immigration, might generate a generalized sense of local decline, which might in turn be translated into a broader set of grievances producing anti-immigrant and anti-establishment sentiments. To test these hypotheses, we use a unique dataset that combines contextual and geo-coded survey data from four West European countries: France, Germany, Great Britain and the Netherlands. This dataset allows us to test how PRR support is predicted by contextual factors, such as (changes in) immigrant presence, the level of unemployment, and demographic decline in multiple polities. Co-authors: Arzheimer, Kai; Berning, Carl; Dutozia, Jerome; Evans, Jocelynt; Gould, Miles; Harteveld, Eelco; Hood, Nicholas; Ivaldi, Gilles; Norman, Paul; Van der Brug, Wouter; Van der Meer, Tom