Understanding the Role of ‘Lock-In’ Dynamics in Coastal Flood Risk Management in the UK, Netherlands and Germany

‘Lock-in’ describes a dynamic whereby mutually-reinforcing mechanisms preserve the prevalent conditions within a policy (sub-) system. In the context of climate change adaptation, such lock-in dynamics (within and between policy (sub) systems) may reinforce particular paradigms, practices and ‘business as usual’, and prove resistant to change. In turn, this may negatively affect the integration of climate change adaptation within established policy systems, or potentially restrict the necessary coordination required between certain policy systems. However, climate change adaptation research to-date has tended to focus on observable, isolated barriers to adaptation (such as the lack of resources or political will), with limited efforts to uncover the potentially underlying lock-in dynamics through which such barriers might be constructed, maintained and potentially interact in mutually-reinforcing ways. Addressing this gap, this research aims to contribute to the theoretical advancement of policy lock-ins by drawing on empirical research into coastal flood risk management. The decision to focus on coastal flood risk management is justified on two grounds. Firstly, climate change projections and sea-level rise present a significant threat to low-lying coastal areas, particularly in terms of coastal flooding. This raises a number of adaptation challenges and critical decisions within flood risk management policy about how best to address climate change adaptation, for example, through continued defence, mitigation or potential relocation of communities, businesses and critical infrastructure. Secondly, governance within the coastal zone is notoriously complex, given the overlapping jurisdictions of various policy systems (such as terrestrial spatial planning and marine management); as such, coordination across policy (sub-) systems is essential for successful adaptation. As a case study, coastal flood risk management therefore provides a window into how lock-in dynamics may affect both the integration and coordination of climate change adaptation within and across policy (sub-) systems. Drawing from research conducted within the ADAPT-LOCK-IN project, we examine how lock-in dynamics have established within coastal flood risk management in the UK, Netherlands and Germany and address a fundamental question – to what extent are lock-in dynamics constraining climate change adaptation? Insights have been triangulated through a mixed methods approach, involving semi-structured and narrative interviews with key stakeholders, comprehensive document analysis and historic analysis, alongside process tracing. We employ both inductive and deductive reasoning; the latter of which was informed by a review of existing lock-in literature from various academic disciplines. While lock-in dynamics are constructed and reinforced through different socio-cultural contexts and institutional systems, cross-country comparisons also reveal the presence of shared lock-in archetypes that appear to transcend these contextual boundaries. These are comprised of various constellations of institutional, behavioural and infrastructural factors, which interact across spatio-temporal scales to preserve certain paradigms and practices that are detrimental to adaptation needs. This paper presents an initial typology of both contextually-situated and contextually-transcendent lock-in dynamics influencing coastal flood risk management in the selected countries. By identifying these, we discern potential entry points for dissolving lock-in dynamics and leveraging change to promote more transformative adaptation in the future.