Do the voters follow? Party policy shifts on European integration and their effects on voting choices

Some radical left and radical right parties have over the past two decades shifted their hard-line positions on European integration. On the issue domain of European integration in party competition, fluctuation and positional shifts have been much more on the poles of party systems compared to centre, where mainstream actors have been consistently pro-EU. While there is ample literature explaining these shifts from the perspective of radical parties on the basis of a moderating ideology or strategic concerns, these shifts and party positioning more generally have not been interacted with demand-side responses, that is their effect on voting choices. Top down (or elite-driven) perspective sees parties as ‘molding’ or ‘shaping’ public opinion. When voters lack confidence in their own ability to make sense of policy matters, we will find greater deference to and, thus, cue-taking from the parties. For all parties the strongest cueing effect is found on the most complex and technical issue, such as the EU issues. Our focus is on party cueing activity (in terms of positional shift) and voters’ responses (in terms of electoral choices) on the EU integration dimension. We search for a symbiosis between demand and supply in the electoral market. Therefore, we advance the following research questions: Do shifts in party positions on European integration cause shifts in voter choices as regards European integration? Do shifts in party positions on European integration affect shifts in voting choices differently among party families? By relying on longitudinal data, we test these hypotheses in 15 countries, differentiating between Radical Left Parties (RLPs), Radical Right Parties (RRPs), Centre-Left Parties (CLPs) and Centre-Right Parties (CRPs).