Electoral volatility, candidate selection patterns, and the evolving descriptive representation of migrant-origin citizens

In many democracies, political incorporation of ethnic minority or migrant-origin citizens – reflected in electoral participation and legislative representation – has occurred primarily via dominant political parties of the centre-left and, eventually, of the centre-right. These large party organisations could facilitate political socialisation and make linkages with ethnic communities that, for their part, often lend their support to parties with a realistic chance of entering (or remaining in) government. Moreover, with large numbers of expected safe candidacies, such parties had scope for diversifying their slates by selecting more candidates from previously underrepresented communities. Over recent elections, however, voters have increasingly rejected historically dominant centrist parties. As the centre has become hollowed out, smaller (and sometimes more radical) parties of the left and right have achieved greater legislative presence, which raises questions about future patterns of ethnic minority political representation. Given their often less institutionalised and more idiosyncratic functioning in party organisation and candidate selection, this paper asks whether historically niche parties (e.g. right populist, libertarian, Green) exhibit distinctive candidate selection patterns along lines of gender and ethnicity, and whether their selection strategies are changing over time along with their shifting electoral fortunes? Moreover, and importantly for the quality and inclusiveness of democracy, what are the implications of growing electoral and party volatility for the descriptive representation of migrant-origin citizens? The empirical analysis draws principally on an original dataset of candidacies in New Zealand elections from 2002 – 2023, while situating the findings in this case in the context of trends of electoral volatility across European and other advanced democracies.