Dealing with ''rogue states'' - Using a Complexity-approach to develop effective policies

Ever since the terrorist attacks of 9/11, dealing with ‘rogue states’ has been a key priority for large parts of the international community in general and the United States in particular. Yet, in the 10 years since 9/11, little headway has been made in finding a consistent approach to dealing with the problems they throw up. Neither military intervention, as in the case of Iraq, nor sanctions, as in the case of North Korea amongst others, has succeeded in bringing such states ‘in from the cold’. In this paper, it will be argued that one of the reasons for this apparent failure is the way politicians and analysts approach the question of ‘rogue states’. Starting from the idea of what an ‘ideal state’ looks like, they try to identify the key points that need to be addressed in order to move a country from being ‘rouge’ to being ‘ideal’. Applying key concepts and tools from the field of Complexity, it will be argued that ‘rouge states’ need to be seen as ‘complex-adaptive systems’ which develop through a process of ‘self-organization’. Using the current stand-off with Iran over its nuclear program as a case study, such recognition has key implications for analysts, policy-makers and policy-making processes which this paper will outline. Based on the above, the paper will conclude by making some specific suggestions on how to, firstly, better frame the problem of ‘rogue states’ and, secondly, reform policy-making processes in order to address this problem more effectively.